Media: What The Papers Say - Rare consistency from the pollsters

As the campaign evolved, one surprise was the consistency of the opinion polls for both Labour and the Conservatives. Apart from the ’rogue’ ICM/Guardian poll on 23 April, which narrowed the gap to five points, other pollsters showed little deviation since the campaign started. Gallup, which published a daily rolling poll, saw the Labour share of vote cover a spread of 53 to 48 per cent. Media favourability showed mild but consistent improvement as the Sun declared for Blair, followed later by the FT. Labour’s turning point can be traced to Tory divisions on the single currency and the ’private manifestos’ of Eurosceptic candidates.

As the campaign evolved, one surprise was the consistency of the

opinion polls for both Labour and the Conservatives. Apart from the

’rogue’ ICM/Guardian poll on 23 April, which narrowed the gap to five

points, other pollsters showed little deviation since the campaign

started. Gallup, which published a daily rolling poll, saw the Labour

share of vote cover a spread of 53 to 48 per cent. Media favourability

showed mild but consistent improvement as the Sun declared for Blair,

followed later by the FT. Labour’s turning point can be traced to Tory

divisions on the single currency and the ’private manifestos’ of

Eurosceptic candidates.



In the Tory camp there was a clear correlation between performance in

the press and voter intentions. The inclination of both the Sun and the

Express was a key factor in determining the overall lack of favourable

press, while even its traditional support from the Daily Telegraph and

Daily Mail mixed positive comment with criticism.



Evaluation and analysis by CARMA International.



Additional cuttings supplied by The Broadcast Monitoring Company.



’What The Papers Say’ can also be found at: http//www.carma.com/carma.



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