Global adspend growth downgraded again to 4%

Global ad expenditure will grow by 4% in 2017 after Zenith downgraded its growth forecast for the second time.

The Publicis media agency’s latest Advertising Expenditure Forecasts gave a global growth figure that was down against previous reports in June (4.2%) and March (4.4%).

Zenith is now predicting global ad expenditure to reach $558 billion, with a marginal downgrade for Western Europe, which is set to grow 2%, down from 2.2% forecast in June.

North America, which Zenith said has suffered from declining network TV ratings, is expected to grow by 3.6% this year, while Western Europe's growth had been "dragged down" by economic uncertainty in the U.K., which is negotiating its exit from the European Union. 

Asia-Pacific and Latin America forecasts also saw marginal downgrades, but there were upgraded growth forecasts for North America and Central and Eastern Europe.

Next year, Zenith expects a 4.2% growth in global adspend, boosted by the Winter Olympics in Korea, the FIFA World Cup in Russia, and the midterm elections in the U.S. 

Meanwhile, the growth in global advertising is being led by social media in-feed ads, online video, and other digital formats such as paid content and native advertising, the report added.

Between 2016 and 2019, they will drive 14% annual growth in total display advertising, a category that includes these formats as well as traditional banners. Total display expenditure will rise from $84 billion to $126 billion over this three-year period, accounting for 64% of all growth in global ad expenditure.

That means by 2019 total display will account for 50.4% of internet advertising expenditure, exceeding 50% for the first time. Most of this growth would come from social media, which will grow 20% a year, and online video, growing at 21% a year.

"Internet display is coming into its own as a brand-building media, powered by social media and online video," said Jonathan Barnard, head of forecasting and director of global intelligence at Zenith. "But the distinctions between online video and traditional television are being eroded, and the two work together much better than they do separately."

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