We're all tired of this spectacle, so will it be the weather that decides the EU vote?

PRWeek EU Referendum Panel: Brexit-supporting Andrew Hayes writes that with Britain divided and tired of the referendum, it might be in the hands of Mother Nature.

Only a day to go to the EU referendum and Britain is divided; on socioeconomic groups we have C2DE leaning towards 'leave' and ABC1 towards 'remain'; it's Wales and the North 'leave', London and the South East and Scotland 'remain'; those aged 65+ are 'leave', 18-24 'remain'. Interestingly, the latest YouGov poll also shows men marginally favour 'leave' and women are neutral.

The fault lines across Britain – not just the Conservative Party – have been dramatically exposed by this campaign. The tragic murder of Jo Cox MP has had an impact, which might prove crucial in the final stages of the race. Only a week ago momentum was unquestionably with 'leave'. A pause of four days proved a critical breakwater for 'remain'. It also played to the pro-EU campaign's narrative around risk and uncertainty.

So turnout could be the deciding factor in what is still a finely balanced situation. Polls suggest Brexiteers are five per cent more likely to vote, which could numb any momentum 'remain' might have been developing over the past few days.

Consequently after months of unremitting campaigning, perhaps the most important data point is the weather forecast for Thursday. This shows "scattered and potentially intense downpours likely to impact many areas". But these look more concentrated in the 'remain' South East where turnout will be affected. Unlike the team planning the invasion of Normandy in 1944, PM David Cameron has no flexibility to take advantage of a "favourable weather opportunity".

Like me and my family, the public is tired of this referendum: tired of 'Project Fear', tired of 'experts', tired of the battle between the political and media classes. The nonsense of it all is typified by the spectacle of David Beckham being wheeled out for 'remain' and fellow former footballer Sol Campbell for 'leave'.

I would be surprised if turnout is much higher than at the last general election at 66 per cent, which could just tip the balance for 'leave'.

Andrew Hayes is CEO at Hudson Sandler and a Brexit supporter

Have you registered with us yet?

Register now to enjoy more articles and free email bulletins

Already registered?
Sign in