Don't add Wisconsin to the list of swing states soon to be invaded by campaign operatives and bombarded with negative – and Super PAC-funded – advertising this summer and fall quite yet.
Despite GOP Gov. Scott Walker's victory over Democratic challenger Tom Barrett in Tuesday's recall election, some Republicans are cautioning their supporters against getting too optimistic about taking the state out of the blue column this November. Exit polls – which also showed a much closer race between Walker and Barrett – indicated President Barack Obama is still leading Republican candidate Mitt Romney in the state. Even Walker said on ABC News that “the president having grown up just across the way in Chicago gives him a certain advantage, at least geographically.” (Of course, using the same logic, the Chicago Bears would play in front of adoring crowds once a year at Lambeau Field in Green Bay.)
That being said, there are a number of red flags in Tuesday's results for the Obama campaign. Some observers are warning that Romney could raise more money than Obama by November – a surprising prediction considering Obama's fundraising advantage over Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in 2008. If those hold true, Romney could take a page from Walker's book, spending huge amounts on TV ads in states that weren't competitive for the GOP the last time around, and thereby forcing Obama to shift resources from states like Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.