Economic numbers improve
The unemployment rate, Dow Jones Index, etc., will improve perceptibly from New Year's Day until Election Day. As a result, President Barack Obama's approval rating will increase steadily with the improving economic statistics.
Newt's demise by past clients
Newt Gingrich is the entrenched Washington animal. The news media will reveal a private-sector client of Gingrich's that is too contrary the beliefs of the GOP base, which will ultimately lead to the end Gingrich's political career.
Party leaders pick nominee
For the first time in decades, party leaders - in this case, the GOP - will not necessarily allow the primary process to produce a winner. This will be especially true if that winner (Gingrich, Ron Paul, and a few others.) looks like an absolute loser in a presidential election the Republicans expect to win, or at least lose by the narrowest of margins. Mitt Romney will flip but not flop: he will be the GOP candidate.
Bill Clinton's tepid support for Obama
In an effort to preserve the legacy of his successful “Third Way” presidency, Bill Clinton will not campaign vigorously for President Barack Obama. Instead, the 42nd president will spend increasing amounts of time discussing his record in the late 1990s.
Liberal groundswell for Obama
In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, Obama's 2008 virtual and physical campaign movement will once again gain energy and rally support behind the president. The leftist grassroots movement will not allow the Republicans to turn back their successful 2008 efforts.
Matt Lauer is partner at Qorvis Communications and president of Qorvis Geopolitical Solutions.