Oscar night predictions

With the writer's strike finally over, Hollywood is scrambling to prepare for the Academy Awards, and the world anxiously awaits the red carpet, Jon Stewart's monologue and, most importantly, the ceremony.

With the writer's strike finally over, Hollywood is scrambling to prepare for the Academy Awards, and the world anxiously awaits the red carpet, Jon Stewart's monologue and, most importantly, the ceremony. Although speculation around the strike and its impact on the actual ceremony upstaged some of the year's top performances, the influential film and entertainment blogs readily discussed their favorite Oscar-worthy movies and performances. Based on the volume and tone of conversations within the most influential blogs, BuzzLogic predicts who will be taking home statues on February 24.

And the Oscar goes to…

Best Picture
• Based on influential buzz alone, No Country for Old Men takes Best Picture hands down, as more than 50% of blog conversations noted the Coen Brothers' latest masterpiece deserved the award. In terms of sheer volume, there were almost twice as many posts for There Will Be Blood than the favored movie, which may be due to Daniel Day-Lewis's riveting performance.
• The influencers love Juno, and many are hoping the indie film will be this year's dark horse winner. The heated conversations note this could be the year of the underdog.

Best Actor
• Daniel Day-Lewis incited a blogosphere frenzy, and is heavily favored within the top blog conversations to take home the actor award. In fact, he is the only nominee consistently referenced by the influencers as a contender for this year's award.

Best Actress
• The Oscar for best actress is still a toss-up. Blog conversations monitored by BuzzLogic favor Julie Christie by a slim margin, but will the veteran actress turn her fourth nomination into a second statue?
• Enchanted actress Amy Adams also received influencer mentions for her turn as a fish-out-of-water princess banished to the Big Apple. Will this long shot take the stage on Oscar night?
• More than 60% of blog conversations noted that the Academy won't give double nominee Cate Blanchett two awards, and she is heavily favored to win Best Supporting Actress instead.

Best Supporting Actor/Actress
• According to BuzzLogic's calculations, the Supporting Actor category seems to be a three-way race: blog conversations are split evenly between Javier Bardem (who won the Golden Globe) for his role in No Country for Old Men, Casey Affleck in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and Tom Wilkinson for Michael Clayton. Both Wilkinson and Bardem have been nominated before. Will the second time prove to be the charm? Or will Affleck show that winning Academy Awards runs in the family? Only time will tell for this one.
• Influential bloggers love Miss Blanchett, and she is the hands down favorite for her gender-bending role as Bob Dylan.

Best Director
• The Coen Brothers are heavily favored to win Best Director – 58% of the influential movie buffs noted the indomitable pair would receive the award on the 24. However, Julian Schnabel – winner of the Golden Globe for Best Director – could give the Coens a run for the prize with The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Thirty percent of the influencer conversations noted the former artist Schnabel as another potential underdog winner.

And after the awards? Hollywood's biggest partiers will be out of luck as some bashes have already been cancelled.
• The blogosphere was on fire with discussion on what celebs were to do after the awards ceremony, as some events, including the fashionable Vanity Fair party, have been cancelled this year. Dani Janssen's private bash, “Oscars at Dani's” is another party casualty, and there are rumors that the Entertainment Weekly event is kaput. The reason? Some blogs note the sliding economy; some note the extravagance and expense of each party; others blame the loss of advertising dollars by publications that traditionally hold after parties. No matter the event, stars, and writers will be enjoying the champagne come Oscar night.

Will the predictions translate into gold statues for the blogosphere favorites, or will 2008 really be the year of the underdog? Tune in Sunday night to find out.

Analysis by BuzzLogic of 25,864 blog conversations posted January 1-February 12, 2008

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