Zenith sees decline in global spend

The growth in global advertising expenditure has peaked, hitting

USdollars 289 billion last year, and is expected to slow down over the

next few years as the stricken Asian markets breed advertiser caution,

according to forecasts from Zenith Media.

The figures show that 1997 was a sterling year for advertising around

the world and appears to mark the watershed of a four-year period of

exceptional growth.

Major-media expenditure rose by 8.3 per cent at current prices, the

biggest growth since the boom of the late 80s, but Zenith forecasts a

falling off of growth over the next three years.

Global advertising spend is set to hit USdollars 303 billion this year,

USdollars 320 billion in 1999 and USdollars 339 billion in 2000.

However, the 1997 devaluations in Asia are dragging down adspend as

several economies slip into recession and ad expenditure for the region

is set to drop by 3 per cent this year, underperforming Europe for the

first time since Zenith began reporting global advertising expenditure

in 1985.

Although most Asian markets are expected to recover by 1999, Japanese ad

expenditure is forecast to fall every year until at least 2000. Japan

accounted for around 13 per cent of global adspend last year and its

decline will depress worldwide growth.

Adam Smith, Zenith’s publications director, said that Europe and the US

had so far suffered little from the Asian downturn, which has, in fact,

limited prices and allowed consumption and hence ad expenditure to rise

more rapidly.

’In 1997, ad expenditure rose in real terms by 4.1 per cent in North

America and by 4.3 per cent in Europe; by 2000 we think real annual

growth rates will have slowed to 2.5 per cent and 1.6 per cent

respectively,’ Smith added.

This article was first published on Campaign