How I called the result of the general election and my prediction for Mayor of London

Since October I had consistently predicted on TV, national press, radio and social media that the Conservatives would win a majority on 7 May. Here's why:

Michael Moszynski: Called the result of the general election. Can he do it again for mayoral race?
Michael Moszynski: Called the result of the general election. Can he do it again for mayoral race?
A question of competence and leadership
Since 2010 the Conservatives had increased their lead on economic competence from 11 per cent to 18 per cent over Labour – despite inheriting the biggest economic downturn in our history.
Although Labour leader Ed Miliband had increased his personal ratings during the campaign, David Cameron was still +23 points by polling day on "who would make the best Prime Minister".
Never in British electoral history had a party that trailed on both these two critical measures won an election.

A massive margin of error by the pollsters
Every poll predicted a hung Parliament with Labour and the Conservatives "neck and neck". To meet the insatiable needs of the media, most were internet polls, which are not as accurate as telephone polls due to the challenge of getting representative samples.

On 14 April, Adam Ludlow of ComRes did an analysis that showed the ‘crossover’ point for a Conservative lead was in January and it was trending upwards. 

Although ComRes in its last polls underestimated the extent of the lead, his blog was the most insightful piece of research in the campaign. 

I forecast, on 6 May, a Conservative majority "in single figures" based on the insight that the polls and pundits failed to take into account: the extent to which undecideds favour the status quo.  
This was also why I predicted the Scottish referendum correctly when the polls were showing a Yes vote: "The yes vote will not get more than 45 per cent." (The result was 44.7 per cent.)

Miliband got it wrong and Lynton Crosby got it right
The seminal moment of the campaign was when Ed Miliband was grilled on Question Time by the public and refused to admit Labour had spent too much. The hostile reaction showed the public would not trust him with the nation’s finances again.
I had the benefit of working with Lynton Crosby on the 2005 general election and recognised that by bringing him in early enough this time, he would be Cameron’s 'Special One' and eke out a Mourinho-style victory: it would not be pretty but as the results in the key marginal showed, it was effective.

SNP failed to mislead the English
When Nicola Sturgeon said she wanted to work with Labour to "lock Cameron out of Downing Street" she was not telling the truth – if so she would have shut up weeks ago.  Her postulating was critical in driving thousands – including Labour supporters – into voting Conservative.

Faith in common sense of the British public
I believe that despite our anachronistic voting system, the collective will of the public shows through. This happened in 2010: the country wanted to get rid of Gordon Brown but did not want to put the Conservatives in power alone. In 2015 I believed people would rather have Cameron in charge as any other outcome would likely result in a weak Miliband being led a dance by the SNP.

And my prediction for London Mayor?
I collected from Ladbrokes for my Referendum and GE2015 predictions and I have placed my bet for London Mayor.
There is a desire for candidates who are not from 'politics as usual' backgrounds and all the Labour candidates are from the same mould as Miliband. If the Tories select Ivan Massow, I believe he will reach the parts of London a typical Conservative cannot reach and pull off an unexpected victory over Labour.

Michael Moszynski is the founder of advertising agency London

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