More than 85% of UK lobbyists expect Barack Obama to win US election

More than 85% of public affairs professionals in the UK believe that Barack Obama will win this week's US presidential election.

Barack Obama: expected to win election by UK lobbyists
Barack Obama: expected to win election by UK lobbyists

The poll of 90 members of the PRCA’s public affairs group saw a large majority expect him to retain the presidency on Tuesday.

Three-quarters of respondents expected him to also win the popular vote despite national polls suggesting the race with Republican candidate Mitt Romney is ‘neck-and-neck’.

Two-thirds agreed that Obama ran the more effective campaign, although a smaller majority (59%) thought he was right to run a more negative campaign than 2008.

Unlike other polls that saw Romney as the victor, a majority of 61% of public affairs professionals felt that Obama had an overall victory in the three televised debates.

Half of all respondents gave Obama a middling three out of five rating for his first term, with only 2% awarding full marks.

However, Weber Shandwick head of public affairs Alex Deane was one dissenting voice against the strength of Obama’s campaign.

‘Obama’s campaign has been weak – perhaps even weak enough to see him lose, against all expectations,’ said Deane. ‘Romney’s has been well-organised and the donations tap was turned on again by the candidate’s clear win in the first debate. I believe the majority of the swing states will fall to the GOP – albeit probably not enough to see an Electoral College majority.'

PRCA policy manager Tom Hawkins added that the Obama campaign has been ‘startlingly negative throughout, which was evidence itself that he has not fulfilled the rhetoric of "hope" and "change" he promised in 2008’.

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