Public Affairs: Soap Box - Graham McMillan, CEO, Open Road

As MPs head off to Olympic events (hopefully not in Zil lanes) or on their holidays, what will the autumn bring for the coalition?

Sadly for them, the feel-good factor may be distinctly lacking. While Wiggo won the Tour and Team GB should do very well in the Olympics, there is no reason to think that this will benefit the coalition once it is all over.

The UK is in recession and GDP figures this week are not going to provide any relief. The eurozone could make matters worse at any point. The majority of the public now sees growth as more important than deficit reduction, so the coalition's strongest card now has dwindling salience.

Lords reform is a legislative car crash that will sour relations in Parliament for much of the rest of the session and may possibly prevent the Tories from getting the boundary changes they desperately need. And for the first time, the public feels that Labour's team may be more competent than the coalition.

A reshuffle will excite the commentariat in September (or later), but it will not help as reshuffles never do. The only thing that would make a difference to the Government's ratings is if David Cameron were to sack George Osborne, which he will not do.

Anything positive for the coalition? Well, unemployment is falling and so is inflation. Both are extremely positive and the former may mean that the GDP stats may be excessively gloomy. And if you ask the question, who would be a better Prime Minister - Cameron or Ed Miliband - Cameron wins hands down, which may suggest that Labour support is soft and may weaken as 2015 approaches.

But overall, Dave would be well advised to chillax, watch the Olympics, have some wine and get some sleep this summer. Life won't get any easier afterwards.

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